Bitcoin Price Prediction – Technical and Fundamental Analysis
With the bulls and bears still fighting for superiority the Bitcoin price has today taken a sudden surge towards $12,000, currently resting at 1 Bitcoin to USD $11,548.
But what are the main Bitcoin price predictions from around the space?
We take a look at Bitcoin technical and fundamental analysis to gage where we think the Bitcoin price is heading in the short term and long term.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Short Term Price Analysis
Looking at BTC/USD daily chart, we can see bulls helped break the symmetrical triangle.
This saw Bitcoin break out on 8 October from 1 Bitcoin to USD $10,599 and marked the end of a 4-week long stagnation period, where we now see a 1 Bitcoin to USD $11,548 at time of writing.
This move has seen $18 billion enter the Bitcoin space, and with little resistance from the bears, it looks bullish for Bitcoin in the short term.
According to Datamish, Bitcoin long positions outnumber shorts by 8:1, and with BitMEX coming under scrutiny from the CFTC, we might see less flash crashes.
There has been a surge in long positions around the $11,500 level, which shows market sentiment believes we are headed towards $12,000.
On the way up we will likely see resistance around $11,910 which coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Short term bulls are likely to take some profits here before we target 1 Bitcoin to USD $12,000 psychological resistance.
Bulls, however, smashed the overhead resistance at $11,500 and if they can keep momentum, the $12,000 resistance will be taken.
Bulls can take confidence from the moving averages, which have completed a bullish crossover. And with the relative strength index now above 67, we can assume Bulls have control.
If momentum picks up and the bulls drive through $12,000, we could retest $12,460, and a breakout at this level may see an uptrend towards $14,000.
Looking at the bearish signs, if bulls can’t get through the 1 Bitcoin to USD $12,000, we could see the price drop to $11,178, where we should have strong support.
However, if we do drop to the low $11,000s we might see the bears aggressively shorting, and with moving average support at around $10,900, any test of that will signal which way the momentum is heading.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – New All Time High?
Jason A. Williams, aka @GoingParabolic on Twitter, is determined that we will see Bitcoin reach a new all time high by 31 October 2020.
The prominent Bitcoiner is extremely bullish and has been tweeting almost on a daily basis about his ATH prediction.
The co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital isn’t backing out of his prediction and recently joked,
‘Please buckle your seatbelts and prepare for take off. Please put all your tray tables up and place your seat in the vertical position. Thank you for flying with #bitcoin and enjoy the flight.’
What is the likelihood of Williams’ Bitcoin price prediction bearing fruit? Well, never say never with Bitcoin, and the price went from 1 Bitcoin to USD $10,548 to its ATH of just under $20,000 in the matter of 12 days back in December 2017.
Back then, however, we were obviously peaking, and the FOMO was incredible. Right now we have bullish sentiment, but there’s no retail FOMO, so a new all time high by the end of this month is highly unlikely.
Economist and prominent Bitcoin bull, Preston Pysh has a more “conservative” outlook to the new all time high, however.
Pysh, the founder of The Investors Podcast, is one of the most bullish in the Bitcoin space and has regularly stated we will see a new Bitcoin all time high by Christmas.
Speaking on Swan Signal Live, Pysh said ,
‘It’s the math, it’s the stock-to-flow model that is showing some of these timelines associated with the price. And when you look at the 463 day moving average on the stock to flow and then you look 20% below that you’re pretty much at $20,000, at December 25th.’
Pysh is a firm believer in the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which is predicting a price high of around $288,000 by the cycle peak. If this materializes, we should see it peak around the end of 2021.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – $1 Million Bitcoin?
A Bitcoin price prediction of 1 Bitcoin to USD $1 million has been made by a few people in the space. Some serious, and some not so serious.
The most infamous $1 million Bitcoin prediction came from John McAfee. The fugitive, and self-pronounced crazy guy infamously said he would feast on his love organ live on television if Bitcoin hadn’t reached $1 million by the end of 2020.
‘The dickening’ as it has been labelled only has 79 days to run and is obviously not going to happen. McAfee himself backtracked saying he was being ridiculous and not to be taken seriously. We knew that anyway, John.
Macro strategist Raoul Pal is the latest to predict a $1 million price prediction for Bitcoin, however.
The Real Vision CEO, said he believes 1 Bitcoin to USD $1 million will be within reach by the end of 2025-26.
A more conservative approach than the McAfee prediction, but is it possible for Bitcoin to reach $1m in five years?
Pal doesn’t believe it will be down to hyperinflation or any global collapse, but simply in the Bitcoin stock to flow and the math.
If Bitcoin maintains its S2F trajectory, then Raoul Pal will be right. The Stock-to-Flow model suggests we will see a $1m Bitcoin around that time.
However, the S2F model is exactly that: a model. It helps us predict future prices, and even its author PlanB says it will fail at some stage.
But the Bitcoin price has followed it almost to a tee so far, and if it continues for the next two halving cycles, Preston Pysh’s price prediction could transpire.
Bitcoin Price Predicition – Bullish
Anyone making a Bitcoin price prediction is putting their reputation on the line, and even their male member in McAfee’s case.
But the macro trend for Bitcoin is clear for all, and with public money entering the space at a rate nobody expected at this stage, it’s hard not to be bullish.
The short term price is harder to predict as neither the bulls or bears have clear sentiment, but mid to long term, only the uninitiated can be bearish on Bitcoin.
Will we see an all time high this year? By Halloween it’s highly doubtful, but Preston Pysh is a highly respected trader, and firmly believes we will see it by the end of the year.
Like most other Bitcoin price predictions, Pysh might be wrong, but wrong in this case is early. If Pysh is early, then we should see a new all time high by end of Q1 2021 at the latest.
And then, as @GoingParabolic says, ‘Buckle your seatbelts and prepare for take off.’