Willy Woo Ups His Bitcoin Price Prediction to $200k
Popular price analyst Willy Woo has reevaluated his Bitcoin price prediction for the cycle top to at least $200,000 per Bitcoin.
Woo, who uses on-chain analysis for his predictions, tweeted his new prediction, saying the trajectory of his ‘Top Cap’ model was hinting towards a much higher price prediction than before.
Willy Woo’s previous price prediction was $100,000. However, with the ‘upward bendy motion detected on Top Cap model’ we can see in his analysis below, the prominent analyst believes we are now on track to double that at least.
And we can see as the trajectory of the Bitcoin price is starting to rise, we’re still a long way from it hitting the top.
Designed by Willy Woo, the Top Cap model is determined by Bitcoin’s market cap multiplied by 35.
As we can see below at the Top Cap historical chart, apart from in Bitcoin’s very early days, the Bitcoin market cap has always matched the market tops since the June 2011 top of $28.60 before correcting.
It hit again in 2013 as the Bitcoin price peaked at $230 before correcting yet again. The bear market was short-lived there as we saw the Bitcoin price breach $1,000 for the first time in 2013.
And we can see the Top Cap model touching the cycle peak yet again as the Bitcoin price peaked at $1,147 in December 2013.
The Top Cap model again matched the last cycle top in December 2017, as both Bitcoin price and Woo’s pricing metric both met at just under $20,000, before Bitcoin went into a year-long bear market.
As we can see in the first image, the Top Cap model is already hovering around the $100,000 mark. Therefore, Woo’s first prediction of $100,000 would need to rise rapidly to meet it the trajectory of the model.
With the clarity in his model, and its historical accuracy, therefore, the price analyst has reevaluated his prediction and now sees $200,000 as a more probable outcome.
Many Price Analysts Predict A Bitcoin Price North Of $100,000
Willy Woo isn’t the first to give a Bitcoin price prediction north of $100,000. Many prominent economists and price analysts have come out in the last 18 months with predictions ranging from a minimum $100,000.
Willy Woo’s latest price prediction is much closer to Pseudonymous price analyst PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2FX) model prediction of $288,000 for the cycle top.
The S2FX model is determined by the length of time it would take to mine the total amount of bitcoin is circulation at the rate at which they’re being produced.
It’s only possible to use a stock-to-flow model on scarce assets such as gold, silver, platinum and of course Bitcoin.
For store of value assets, a high S2F ratio indicates that they’re being mostly used as a monetary hedge, which drives up the stock-to-flow ratio.
And a higher ratio indicates an asset is increasingly scarce, and is more valuable as a store of value. Therefore, the S2FX model predicts we will see a Bitcoin price of around $288,000 at the cycle peak.
Will This Halving Cycle Play Out Like The Others?
Bitcoin has historically played out its four year halving cycles, and we have seen three huge increases followed by 80%+ corrections.
This is normal for a new asset finding its value, and the cycle peaks of $200-288,000 being called are expected later this year.
However, not everyone believes this halving cycle will play out like the previous ones.
Pysh puts his suggestion down to the overwhelming institutional demand for Bitcoin and ‘major systematic issues with the global debt market.’
Pysh does talk about preparing oneself for another huge correction after the peak, but says the potential Bitcoin reaching escape velocity ‘is much higher than some realise.’
Dan Held has also talked about Bitcoin having entered a supercycle in which Bitcoin won’t see another huge crash.
The Kraken exec said, ‘I feel like a lot of people are looking at the market and they’re going, ‘Oh well Bitcoin will just have a typical cycle.’
But Held believes this cycle is very different from the previous ones, claiming macro backdrop was perfect for Bitcoin for it to show ‘exactly why it’s needed.’
How High Will The Bitcoin Price Reach?
How how will the Bitcoin price reach? Depending who you listen to you’ll hear every price from $0 to tens of millions of dollars.
It’s all about your time horizon. Bitcoin has historically played out perfectly with its cycle halvings, and many pricing models are playing out.
Willy Woo’s Top Cap model is historically correct, as is PlanB’s S2FX model, but as any analyst will tell you: models work until they don’t work.
Many prominent Bitcoiners and macro economists believe Bitcoin will smash $100,000 and go way beyond. And because we are still early in this halving cycle, it looks like it certainly could.
But as with any model, halving cycles will only play out until they don’t. This one, however, might just hit escape velocity.